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The 2026 Matcha Shortage: Why Prices Jumped and How to Buy Without Overpaying

If your favorite matcha has been sold out for weeks, or came back at a noticeably higher price, you're seeing the result of a supply squeeze that started in 2024 and hasn't eased. Demand for matcha outside Japan grew faster than Japanese farms can grow and mill it, and the raw leaf behind matcha has been selling at record prices in Japan.

This guide explains what's driving it, what's known about 2026, and how to keep buying good matcha without overpaying. Research-based; we cite where figures come from and note where sources disagree. Last checked: October 2026.

What happened, in short

• Demand jumped. US retail matcha sales were up 86% over three years as of late 2025, according to the market research firm NIQ, as reported by the Associated Press. Café menus, social media and matcha lattes drove it, and the same trend played out in Europe and Asia.
• Supply can't scale quickly. Matcha is made from tencha, a shaded tea that takes years to establish, needs extra labor, and is ground slowly. Stone mills produce only a few dozen grams an hour. Japan's tea farmers are also ageing, and the number of farms has been falling for years.
• Weather and leaf diversion. The 2025 harvest was hurt by weather. Industry sources report that some farms in 2026 shifted leaf from sencha and other teas into tencha to meet matcha demand, which raised matcha supply somewhat but also tightened supply of other green teas.
• Costs downstream. A 15% US tariff on Japanese goods has been in effect since 2025, and importers have passed higher leaf costs on to retail prices.

What's known about 2026 prices

Tea in Japan is mostly sold at regional wholesale markets and auctions, and tencha prices there are the best early signal. Several industry reports from 2026 agree on the direction, though their exact numbers differ:

• Reported average prices for first-flush tencha in Kyoto (Uji) reached roughly ¥17,000 to ¥18,000 per kilogram in mid-2026, described as the highest on record and about three times the 2024 level.
• Tencha auctions in Kagoshima, now one of the largest tencha producers, were also reported at record averages in May 2026.
• Japanese tea houses including Ippodo have used per-customer purchase limits and price revisions since 2025, and popular grades have repeatedly sold out shortly after restocking.

We've given ranges rather than a single figure because the sources (mainly trade and retailer reports) differ by a few percent and use different definitions. The direction is not in dispute: raw tencha costs much more than it did two years ago. Several industry observers expect tight supply to continue into 2027.

What this means when you shop

• Cheap "ceremonial" matcha deserves extra suspicion. When raw leaf costs this much, a large tin at a bargain price is likely later-harvest leaf, a blend, or matcha from outside Japan. None of those are bad in themselves, but the label should say so. Check the origin and harvest on the listing.
• Price per gram matters more than tin size. Some brands have kept the tin price and quietly reduced the grams. Compare per gram.
• Sold out is normal for top grades. If a specific Kyoto house's matcha is sold out, it may restock within days and sell out again. Subscribe to restock emails rather than paying resale markups.

How to keep drinking good matcha without overpaying

1. Match the grade to the use. The biggest saving. Use a good culinary or "latte" grade for lattes, and save first-harvest matcha for drinking with water. Our grades guide explains the difference and why the word "ceremonial" alone tells you little.
2. Buy smaller tins more often. Matcha fades within weeks of opening. A 30 g tin you finish is better value than a 100 g bag that goes dull.
3. Look at Kagoshima, Nishio and Shizuoka matcha, not only Uji. "Uji" carries a premium. Matcha from other Japanese regions can be excellent and is often easier to find in stock.
4. Try hojicha for some of your lattes. Roasted hojicha powder makes a toasty, low-bitterness latte and is far less affected by the tencha squeeze. See our guide to Japanese green tea types.
5. Use a little less, made well. Sifting, the right water temperature and proper whisking get more flavor out of 2 g than careless preparation gets out of 4 g. Our home preparation guide covers it.
6. Avoid resellers charging above list price. Restocks are frequent; markups usually aren't worth it.

Where to look for stock

US-based brands that source from Japan, such as Jade Leaf, Matcha Source, Tenzo and Nippon Matcha, tend to have steadier stock of everyday grades. Kyoto houses like Ippodo and Marukyu Koyamaen remain the benchmark for top grades but have the most frequent sell-outs and purchase limits. Japan-based SEN ships internationally. Prices change frequently in this market; check the current listing before you decide.

Will prices come down?

Not quickly. New tea fields take years to mature, and converting fields to shaded tencha takes investment and labor that Japan's tea sector is short of. Some farms are expanding tencha production, and more leaf is being shifted to matcha, which should ease supply over a few harvests. But as long as overseas demand keeps growing, expect higher prices than before 2024 to be the new normal for good matcha. We'll update this guide as 2027 harvest data comes in.

Sources and notes. US retail sales growth (NIQ) and importer price increases: Associated Press, September 2025. 2026 tencha prices and market conditions: Japanese tea industry and trade reports published May to September 2026, which differ in exact figures; we report ranges. Ippodo purchase limits: the company's own store notices since 2025. Tariff: US tariff on Japanese imports in effect since 2025. This article contains no health claims and is not investment advice.